Precision strikes are restating the rules of modern warfare. This winter, Ukraine has escalated the conflict into Russian territory because of the employment of the UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles in the large-scale strike campaign by Ukraine. First, the strikes are not only tactical but are part of Ukraine’s plan to undermine the military-industrial complex of Russia, in addition to showcasing the precision strike capability of Ukraine.
The latest missile attack at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Russian Federation’s Rостov Oblast further illustrates the changing tempo of operations. Ukraine has now commenced attacking vital energy infrastructure well back from the front lines in what reflects a melding of their newfound inventory of long-range missiles from their allies in the West with their own indigenous long-range missile capability. This series of attacks would serve as a primer in high-intensity warfare, it wrote.
1. First Usage of Storm Shadow at Novoshaktinsk
The Ukrainian Air Force has reported the first strike with Storm Shadow cruise missiles has targeted the Ukraine’s Novoshakhovets Oil Products Plant. This has an estimated distance of around 175 km away from the Ukraine-held territory. The plant has remained an integral part of the country because of the production of diesel fuel and aviation kerosene. This has made the plant one of the major targets for the attack. The attack has led to an explosion. This is the at least sixth attack on the installation since March of 2024, although it now represents something of an escalation in the kind of weaponry employed. The theoretical range of the Storm Shadow missile is such that it more than exceeds the current 250 kilometers, allowing it to deeply penetrate Russian space without the threat of surface-to-air missiles.
2. UK Resupply & Winter Plan
London has recently donated another batch of Storm Shadow missiles to the Ukrainian government, before the onset of the winter, according to sources cited in a Bloomberg report. This is due to fears held by the British government that Russia may target civilians more in the coming winter, though the number of missiles is not clear. The British government has announced this assistance package in terms of the overall message to the Putin regime of the commitment of the West to continue for longer than the ability of the Kremlin to pay for the conflict. The French government has recently launched the production of the SCALP-EG variant of its missile, the first contract in 15 years for this missile.
3. Technology Overview of Storm Shadow
A low observability cruise missile, designed to be deployed from the air and engage hardened targets with precision, is the Storm Shadow. The missile awaits employment with a 450 kg payload, Mach 1 speed, and at low altitudes in effect to avoid enemy observation. The unit cost for each missile is effectively USD 1 million. This projectile, called the ASTER 15 and produced by MBDA, a joint venture between the UK, French, Italian, and German partners, has already proven its effectiveness during past attacks on the Russian naval headquarters located on the Black Sea in Sevastopol.
4. Expanded Target Set: Temryuk and Adyge
At the same time with the strike at the Novoshakhmatkinsk strike, Ukraine targeted the Temryuk seaport in the Krasnodar region of Russia, damaging the second and fourth oil tanks that the military forces of Russia were using. Ukraine also claimed that it had bombed the military airfield of Russia within the Adygea Republic, leading to a fire outbreak. Such strikes represent Ukraine’s plans to target logistics nodes and fuel infrastructure in Russia with the goal of undermining Russian sustainability across various fronts. This is because Ukraine only attacked Russia using cruise missiles, showing that it lacks access to advanced weapons.
5. Volgograd Refinery Disruption
According to Russian sources, the Volgograd refinery operated by Lukoil halted its activities after being affected by the Ukrainian drone attack that damaged its main processing unit and hydrocracker. The plant has a capacity to refine 13.7 million tons of oil within the year 2024 and accounts for 5.1% of the total country’s capacity. This serves to add to the incremental damage effectuated by the Ukraine-oriented campaign of attacks on the energy sector, which has already diminished Russian petroleum production by one-fifth.
6. Integration with Domestic Long-Range Systems
The Ukrainian attacks are not limited in the use of the missiles provided or launched by the West. The indigenously developed Long Neptune Cruise Missile with a strike range of 1,000 km has been used to attack the Sheskharis Oil Terminal located in the port city of Novorossiysk. It represents strategic attacks. The missiles cannot be controlled or governed by the will of foreign countries regarding their use. Other Iranian-made designs include the Flamingo cruise missile, with a range of 3,000 kilometers, which enables the country to attack targets much beyond the range of remotely controlled Iranian planes.
7. Coordination of Drone and Missile Attack
The air war conducted by the Ukrainians is characterized by impressive missile attacks and massive drone strikes. This is evidenced by the fact that in December alone, over 300 explosive drones successfully overcame Russia’s air defense and targeted oil facilities, military airfields, and an offshore processing platform lying within the boundaries of the Caspian Sea. This is because Russia is forced to have its air defense stretched, hence an airspace gap will be created, which can be bridged by a Storm Shadow weapon. It focuses on what’s happening downstream, which means it not only targets the immediate target, it targets the supply chain and the morale systems being built to support Russia’s war efforts, he says.
8. Changes in Western Policies Regarding Strike Permissions
The use of Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia by the UK government is based on follow-through of the Biden administration’s new guidelines of allowing strikes of ATACMS outside Ukrainian borders. The strategy has opened new targets of airfields in Russia. It is asserted by analysts that while Russia has placed its resources outside the boundaries to mitigate risks, the missiles have increased ranges, which make them hindrances for Russia.
9. Strategic Impact on Russian Air Operations
With the targeting of refineries, sea ports, and airports, the effect of Ukraine indirectly affects the ability of aerial bombardment in Russia. With fuel shortages and increased sortie times, the effect of glide bombing in Russia will have reduced efficiency. The Institute For The Study Of War lists around 225 Russian bases within the range of a Storm Shadow missile.
10. Morale and Political Signaling
In addition to the physical attacks, these represent the fact that Ukraine is truly fighting back against Russia. The images of destroyed oil refineries and infrastructure are also on every corner, effectively negating the psychological blow of the Russian winter onslaught bombardment and attack on the infrastructure and morale of the people and Russian forces already on the ground: The Russia Ukraine conflict has seen some advanced technology, some Ukrainian innovation, and precise targeting go into this process.
It is unlikely that the aftermath and cumulative impact of this on the fronts involved and around the areas involved will pose as significant a threat or impact on the outcome as it stands on its own merit, as far as the opinion and view from the angle and area on the view and opinion of a ‘military observer’.
