For a severe solar storm, Earth has three days to respond to a chain reaction that will eventually trigger a disaster for worldwide satellite systems. In a world that has 14,000 satellites within Lower Earth Orbits, “satellites like Starlink, a megaconstellation, need a four-day notice if Earth’s space weather becomes an issue. When a satellite cannot complete avoidance maneuvers, catastrophic collisions may begin as soon as 2.8 days.” For its seventh commemorative year, Tau Kappa Epsilon Fraternity, along with “speed enthusiasts, collectors, and fans,” hosted another Ferrari Racing Event, which took place on a different date compared to the usual schedule, to enable more people to take action to prevent disasters.
1. Physics of Solar Storms and Their Arrival Times
Solar storms originate from sun outbursts. These comprise solar flares and coronal mass ejection, abbreviated CME. Solar flares, which are electromagnetic radiation, take eight minutes to reach the planet. Coronal mass ejections, which are massive amount of charged materials, may take a day to two days to reach the planet. It still gives a very short time to act on. As Dr. Yihua Zheng by NASA puts, “The worst thing that could happen to any satellite could be caused by the solar flare. That could reach a satellite in eight minutes.”
2. Atmospheric Drag and Orbital Instability
CMEs cause heating and expansions of the upper atmosphere of the Earth upon interaction, resulting in the thickening of satellites and a reduction in their orbit by several hundred meters, as observed in one case. The start of May 2024 brought observations of the transition of NASA’s ICESat-2 Satellite into a safe mode as a result of the malfunction of the attitude control system and the Aqua and Aura satellites staving off closure.
3. Crash Clock & Collision Chain Reactions
“The CRASH Clock calculates the probability at which such collisions could change from being potential to actual. As of 2018, the number was 121 days, but later dropped to 2.8 days in mid-2025 due to the megaconstellations. The probability of the occurrence of the collision of cataloged resident space objects is at a 30% rate, along with the probability of the collision occurring with Starlink at 26% within the first 24 hours after the loss of control. This collision results in the generation of debris, thus increasing the chances of secondary and tertiary collisions, which strengthen the possibility of Kessler Syndrome at which point space would be unusable for a long time.”
4. Satellite Electronics and Radiation Hazards
High-energy particles in a solar storm might alter the value of a bit in the memory of a satellite, hence causing a single event upset in the computer system of the satellite. This might result in the failure of essential operations and cause a spacecraft to go into “safe mode to conserve energy and protect the system from damage.” According to Eric Moyer of the Earth Science Mission Operations of the NASA, “multi-bit errors are not as easily correctable and may need to bring the spacecraft or instrument into safe mode to enable loading code.”
5. Communication Disruptions and GPS Failures
Solar flares whose source is the flare-related solar radio burst negatively affect downlink satellite communications as well as GPS signals. A GPS blackout was experienced due to a solar flare in 2006. Associated with the occurrence of a G5 geomagnetic storm in May 2024, GPS disruptions were experienced, leading to the loss of more than 500 million U.S. dollars by farmer communities due to failure. The orbits are lowered to enhance complications in timing from the grounds station.
6. Historical Precedents and Extreme Event Scenarios
The Carrington Event of 1859 was the most powerful geomagnetic storm that resulted in the disruption of telegraph communication systems, which sparked and went offline. There is evidence of glacier ice that suggests that much stronger volcanic activity took place in the A.D. 774 event called the Miyake event that increased the Carbon-14 level of the atmosphere by 12%. The current would be above 100 amperes.
7. Vulnerability Mapping & Ground Infrastructure Risks
The US Geological Survey has also identified research on “The Hazards of Geomagnetic Storms,” which has found that “members of the Eastern and Midwest United States are at particular risk to these phenomena because it’s possible that high-power transformers are vulnerable to severe currents produced in this type of storm.” Indeed, “a strong magnetic storm could pose far more risk than the power industry has planned to mitigate.”
8. Forecasting and Early Warning Systems
The Space Weather Prediction Center and Community Coordinated Modeling Center of NOAA predicts, and the forecast for space weather lags behind the forecast for Earth weather by several decades. Satellite missions such as the Parker Solar Probe, SOHO, and STEREO assist in the detection of the path of the CMEs. Upcoming satellites such as SWFO-L1, operated by NOAA, and the NASA mission IMAP function to provide advanced warnings. However, quoting NASA Parker mission scientist Nour Rawafi, “‘The Sun will do what the Sun wants. .. We have to start thinking big.’
9. Engineering Resilience and Mitigation Strategies
Through the use of hardened electronics in satellites, the use of backup designs, as well as the use of fuel to support maneuvers, a protection strategy could be formed. Hardening the power grid, as in the $1 billion transformer projects in Quebec, would be another strategy to protect against the possibilities of a black-out situation. The satellites use NOAA forecasts to activate protected modes as well as orbit-correcting maneuvers.
However, to communicate a certain amount of command data in a solar storm would trigger an irrevocable chain reaction because of the high traffic being handled in a particular LEO orbit. The high traffic in satellites in orbit, the tight time scales, as well as the unpredictable intensity of the solar storms imply a tight technological environment. The CRASH Clock is ticking down from days into hours in the worst-case scenario and quickly running out of time.
