“The first fight of the next war will be fought with more drones than any of us have ever seen,” cautioned Maj. Gen. Curt Taylor of the U.S. Army’s 1st Armored Division in July 2025. That future already exists on Ukraine’s battlefields. In an attrition-fueled war of improvisational technology, unmanned vehicles have been force-multipliers, disassembling some of Russia’s most expensive and sophisticated defenses.
Recent actions by Ukraine’s 412th ‘Nemesis’ Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment have served to mark this trend. In a recent battlefield engagement, their crews destroyed or damaged two Russian Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile defenses each valued at some $25 million through clandestine means. The strikes were more than an economic attack; they disabled Russia’s multi-layered air defense, with doors left open for further Ukrainian air raids.
These advances provide a glimpse of the vibrant interplay between drone technology, combat strategy, and strategic impact. The following are seven conclusions from this and other upcoming trends, revealing how Ukraine is reshaping modern conflict.
1. The Tor-M2’s Role in Russia’s Air Defense
Tor-M2 is a mobile, short-range air defense missile system used against low-altitude targets such as aircraft, helicopters, drones, and guided missiles. It is part of Russia’s echelon air defense and is utilized as a defense for high-priority assets such as the S-300 and S-400 systems. Tor-M2 intercepts targets up to 15 kilometers away during transit, which makes it an important node in Russia’s defense system.
Loss of two such systems in one operation is not only a tactical loss. It undermines the umbrella of defense over other assets, making them available for use. Loss of the units also has symbolic effect, undermining trust in Russia’s ability to counter more sophisticated Ukrainian unmanned offensive systems.
2. Nemesis Heavy Attack Drone Capabilities
The Nemesis heavy strike drone, which Russian soldiers have also called “Baba Yaga,” has established itself as a multi-role precision-strike vehicle. Developed to destroy armored vehicles and fortified positions, the Nemesis drone is capable of being loaded with multiple payloads and dropping them successively until its target is destroyed. In December 2024, Nemesis drones allegedly destroyed another Tor-M2 during a nighttime attack, highlighting their versatility.
With Starlink satellite comm terminals, Nemesis is not bound by the constraints of conventional communications, remaining in command even in adversarial electromagnetic environments. Its ability to engage on infrared at night and real-time flight capability enables operators to initiate strikes with little possibility of encountering countermeasures.
3. Classified Innovations in Strike Execution
Ukrainian Unmanned Forces showed us little of “new innovative solutions” used in recent Tor-M2 attacks, a calculated choice to preserve operational security. Earlier images uncovered precision strikes by UAVs overhead, but the exact means via AI-guidance, fiber-optic control, or swarming remain unreported.
This camouflage continues a broader tendency during the war: speeding up cycles of strike strategies to pre-empt countermeasures by the enemy. Keeping it hidden preserves the surprise factor, which would allow Russia to simply adjust its defenses for the next fight.
4. Target Recognition through AI Integration
Ukraine’s defense AI technology has created ATR for automatically tracking and identifying targets in hostile conditions. ZIR kit is merely one example, capable of identifying targets at 1 km and locking in heavy electronic warfare. UAVs are flown automatically up to 3 km away from the pilot with onboard processing, hitting mobile targets with great accuracy.
They reduce the burden for operators and improve jamming immunity. AI-driven ATR likely had a role during Tor-M2 attacks in ensuring projectiles were dropped accurately despite the system’s radar and drone defense.
5. Challenging Russia’s Layered Defense
The presence of the Tor-M2 in the multi-layered Russian defenses ensures that its loss is experienced in a ripple effect. Without short-range interceptors, medium- and long-range interceptors like the Buk-M3 or S-400 are vulnerable to attack when they are at low altitudes. This creates an opportunity for Ukrainian UAVs to advance deeper, attacking assets which were not previously accessible.
Such penetrations cause Russia to redesign other systems, expanding coverage and possibly endangering more areas. The psychological impact on operators knowing that costly defenses can be bypassed also leads to the network’s inefficiency.
6. Lessons for Global Militaries
The capability to take out costly systems with comparatively low-cost drones validates a truism previously shown in Ukraine: mass production and dissemination of ubiquitous unmanned platforms have the potential to counter conventional hardware supremacy. As long as under $1,000 small drones can destroy tanks that cost millions, armies everywhere are redefining procurement priorities.
American training today includes drones as part of standard kits, considering them as essential as radios or night vision goggles. Ukraine’s experience is a lesson in employing modular design, AI integration, and prototyping agile to remain effective on the battlefield.
7. Strategic Implications Off the Battlefield
In addition to tactical successes in the immediate future, Ukrainian drone success bolsters its geopolitical standing. Showing the capacity to disrupt advanced Russian systems reinforces Kyiv’s argument for ongoing international support and presents the potential for defense-industrial partnership.
Co-production agreements with allies have been made available by President Zelensky, with the goal of producing millions of unmanned systems on an annual basis. Operations are demonstration-of-concept, demonstrating that Ukrainian innovation can match and swamp state-of-the-art adversary defenses.
These Russian Tor-M2 attacks reveal a broad revolution in combat: speed, cleverness, and unmanned technology are equal to traditional firepower. Ukraine’s ability to integrate precision UAVs, AI-assisted targeting, and strategic shock has not merely inflicted financial and operational harm on its opponent but reorganized the mathematics of contemporary defense. As militaries across the globe learn these lessons, the seesaw balance of cost, capability, and flexibility will characterize the coming age of war.
