Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukraine have escalated to new heights since January, with Moscow firing 27,158 rounds in six months alone nearly twice the amount posted in the last half-year of the Biden presidency. This surge, verified by BBC Verify’s examination of data from the Ukrainian Air Force, is coming at the same time President Donald Trump is back in office and just ahead of his big-ticket summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The escalating air campaign is not just remaking the battlefield but challenging the scope of Ukraine’s developing air defense network.
1. Record-Scale Air Barrages
The sudden escalation of Russian attacks both illustrates expanded production capabilities and tactical adjustment. Ukrainian intelligence describes the Russian ballistic missile production as having increased by 66% in the last year, while drone production focused on the massive Alabuga plant in Tatarstan is producing 170 Geran-2 drones per day. Initially derived from Iran’s Shahed design, “kamikaze” drones have been redesigned to become less susceptible to interception, with modified acoustic signatures and enhanced warheads. On just July 9, Moscow dispatched 748 drones and missiles, a record for a single day.
2. The Geran-2 and the Shahed Legacy
The Geran-2 is an example of how Russia incorporated foreign technology into mass production. Based on the Iranian Shahed-136, it is a delta-wing propeller-powered loitering munition with a more than 1,000-kilometer range. Its low cost tens of thousands of dollars a unit enables saturation tactics that overwhelm defenses. Ukrainian officials explain that barrages now frequently mix Gerans with decoy drones to compel air defense systems to expose their positions and burn up interceptors unnecessarily.
3. Ukraine’s Drone Counteroffensive
Even after losing the strategic city of Chasiv Yar, Ukraine has reduced Russian territorial advances with better drone tactics. These include deep strikes on Russian logistics hubs, sea drone strikes in the Black Sea, and incorporating First-Person View (FPV) drones within frontline forces for precision attacks on armor and artillery. NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska termed Ukraine’s drone warfare “remarkable,” observing its multi-domain applicability within land, sea, and air.
4. Air Defense Overwhelmed
The upsurge of Russian attacks put Ukraine’s air defense system under extreme pressure, depending greatly on Western-provided systems. The most effective assets are still Patriot missile batteries, which cost each interceptor close to $4 million a far cry from the low cost of Geran drones. This cost imbalance is reflected in the threat presented by glide bombs, which are able to be fired from stand-off distances out of range of the majority of Ukrainian assets. NATO’s recent Innovation Challenge emphasized AI-powered detection and low-cost interceptors as essential for rebalancing.
5. The Glide Bomb Problem
Glide bombs low-thermal-signature precision-guided munitions are becoming more frequently employed by Russian forces to attack urban and bunkered targets. Their low cost and defense-saturating capability make them a recurring threat. Winning ideas from NATO’s 2025 Innovation Challenge included AI-powered acoustic detection arrays, containerized interceptors that can roll out 200 autonomous systems, and electronic warfare equipment intended to spoof Russian GLONASS navigation.
6. NATO’s Industrial Mobilization
The July Hague Summit established a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, at least 3.5% of which must go toward essential military needs like air and missile defense, armored vehicles, and drones. Alliance-wide, hundreds of new production lines are coming online to address demand. NATO leaders have made it clear that “cash alone does not deter” only the swift fielding of tangible capabilities can counteract adversaries’ production bursts.
7. Trump-Putin Alaska Summit
To be held on Friday, the summit in Alaska has already been dubbed by analysts as a “diplomatic coup” for Putin, who last met an American president on American soil in 2007. Initial suggestions from Trump’s representative Steve Witkoff offering that Ukraine hand over remaining Donetsk and Luhansk land in return for a ceasefire have sent shock waves in Kyiv and throughout European capitals. The lack of any Ukrainian or European representation reinforces fears that the negotiations may provide terms extremely favorable to Moscow.
8. Strategic Implications for the Battlefield
Russia’s offensives have slowed territorial victories now five times smaller than they were earlier in the year but its sustained air war is wearing down Ukrainian morale and infrastructure. Senator Chris Coons cautions that inconsistent signals from U.S. weapons supplies may encourage the Kremlin to “outlast the West.” With Russia’s coordinated application of missiles, drones, and glide bombs, and Ukraine’s dependence on expensive interceptors, the aerial component of the war is more characterized by industrial capability and technological innovation.
The intersection of mass-produced drones, high-tech munitions, and adaptive countermeasures is revolutionizing the conflict into a test of innovation and stamina. With Alaska looming, the question is whether diplomacy will chill the technology arms race or simply allow Moscow to gain more time to advance.
