Bold moves win wars – and Ukraine latest parade of drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure on the night before New Year is a calculated escalation to transform the battlefield in 2026. With modified tactics, Moscow is continuing to thrust further into Ukrainian land and Kyiv is hitting the very core of Russian energy pipelines, attacking both its economy and its military complex.
It is not an explosion and fire campaign but a campaign of strategic disruption. Along the Black Sea coast to the industrial wartime north of Moscow, refineries, terminals and depots which are the support of the Russian war are being hit by Ukrainian drones. The attacks are the climax to a year of growing deep-strikes, using developments in unmanned systems to push the war back into Russia. The top ten lessons out of this operation and its overall lessons are as follows.
1. Tuapse Oil Refinery Hit Hard
One of the ten largest oil refineries in Russia, the Tuapse Oil Refinery (the processing capacity equals 12 million tons per year), was damaged in its main processing unit (ELOU-AVT-12) and integrated refining systems. The General Staff of Ukraine claimed a fire caused by the strike had disrupted the work of a plant that manufactures gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and petrochemical feedstock used by the Russian military.
2. Tamanneftegaz Terminal Disabled
In response to the American use of drones on Ukrainian forces in the Tamanneftegaz oil and gas terminal, in the Taman Peninsula (off the Crimean Bridge). The one of the biggest facilities in the Black Sea region, the facility stores and transports the crude oil, petroleum products, and liquefied hydrocarbon gas to be exported and supplied to the military. Port infrastructure was made inoperative by the destruction of two loading arm-serviced berths. According to Krasnodar officials, fires whose area is over 1,000 square meters and two ship and pier damages were observed. This is after a Dec. 22 attack that had already caused equipment damage and led to a major blaze demonstrating Kyiv’s willingness to repeatedly attack its important nodes.
3. Temp Oil Depot Rybinsk on fire
Long-range drones flew deep into Yaroslavl Oblast, striking the Temp oil depot of the Rosrezerv at Rybinsk, one of the largest logistics centers 800 km into the territory of Ukraine. The station is of high value target because of the nature of storage and distribution of petroleum products throughout northeastern Russia. Sources of the Ukrainian Security Services termed the strike as a step in a series of planned attacks to cut off the fuel supply lines of Russia. Video footage depicted a large fire and the amount of damage is being investigated. The operation is indicative of how Kyiv is capable of projecting force way beyond the front lines.
4. Occupied Crimea and Donetsk Military Targets
In addition to energy infrastructure, Ukrainian forces destroyed a temporary base of the Russian river boats off the occupation of Crimea at Olenivka and ammunition and logistical depots at Blyzhnye and Siyatel, Donetsk Oblast. The Special Operations Forces claimed to have destroyed a logistics base of the Russian “Vostok” squad and those employed by the 30 th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. These attacks undermine the ability of Russia to operate in occupied regions in addition to the economic sabotage of energy attacks.
5. Strategic View on Russian Refining Capacity
The analysts in the industry project that the drone attack campaign on the deep strikes by Ukraine has already rendered 10 percent of the Russian refineries inactive. According to Tatiana Mitrova of Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, this is triggering internal fuel crises, rationing and dwindling export earnings. Although the refining system in Russia is still in excess, constant strikes strain its ability. A ban on gasoline exports and increasing crude oil exports at the cost of refined products have led to a reduction in earnings used to finance the war.
6. Record Pace of Energy Infrastructure Strikes
In December 2025, there were at least 24 Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (compared with November 23). It targeted 10 oil refineries, 11 maritime, two tankers, and one element of a pipeline. Such a continuous speed is supposed to flood the repair operations and put down critical facilities offline. According to Ukrainian sources, Bloomberg data shows that this rhythm of operations causes Russia to redistribute funds to defense and restructuring.
7. High tech Ukrainian Drone Forces
These days Ukraine has such systems as the Lyutiy, which can fire explosives to a distance of 2,000 km, and the Beaver, which has a range of 1,000 km. These support swarms of low cost FPV drones to carry out saturation attacks. This multiplicity of platforms – jet-powered designs, modified ultralights, etc. – enables Kyiv to match a strike to type and range or beat around their defenses and deep into Russian airspace.
8. Para-Battlefield Air Interdiction Campaign
Analysts observe that Ukraine is also engaged in its own war logistics air interdiction (BAI) operation, following the same approach used by Russia through drones. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces struck oil depots, substations, radar stations, and other military facilities with at least 25-100 km on occupied territories on Dec. 3031. This intermediate targeting is done to slack down Russian progress by disrupting supply lines and diminishing back-area capacities.
9. Russian Counterclamation and Information Warfare
Moscow has tried to change the script by claiming that Ukrainian drones attacked the residence of President Vladimir Putin at Novgorod Oblast on Dec. 2829. The Kremlin provided maps and video of drones that had been downed yet the Western authorities and Kyiv discredited the information as baseless. Kaja Kallas, the chief of EU foreign policy described it as a calculated diversion to peace efforts. The above information operations underscore the cognitive aspect of the conflict as perception management is as important as physical strikes.
10. Violence During Deadlock in Peace Negotiations
Russia does not show any indication of accepting any peace agreement even though there have been several rounds of negotiations brokered by the U.S. armed with maximalistic demands. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declared that he will not be signing a weak agreement, and still presents deep strikes against Russian refineries as the most effective sanctions of all, the ones that can be quickest.
The operations on the New Year Eve indicate that Kyiv intends to continue putting pressure on the Russian military and economic systems until 2026.The organized New Year’s Eve strikes in Ukraine are indicative of a combination of technological advances, strategic positioning, and psychological coercion. Kyiv is compelling Moscow to wage war on multiple levels through hitting its energy infrastructure, military logistics, and occupied territory assets in a single night, imposing physical, economic and informational warfare. “
