This has escalated over the past few weeks into a sea battle in the Caribbean that has shown a confusing combination of sanctions implementation, naval maneuvering, and geopolitical huff and puff. The US has evolved to interdictments, which occur infrequently, to a more regular campaign against vessels involved in the approved oil trade in Venezuela. This growth is not only transforming the regional security environment, but it is attracting global powers with interests in the game.
The struggle over Venezuelan crude has now become one of high-stakes boardings, military blockades and conflicting legal discourses, with Washington trying to cut off the money supply to the government of President Nicolás Maduro. Caracas, in its turn, is marshaling escorts, sweeping anti-piracy legislation, and marshalling allies in the United Nations. The remainder of this paper summarizes nine major events that characterize this ongoing maritime confrontation.
1. Out of Single Pursuits to an Ongoing Campaign.
U.S. forces have switched a one-on-one tracking of individual tankers, to a concerted enforcement assault on several different vessels associated with Venezuela. Navy vessels, coast guard cutters and White House orders are now working together unlike in the past whereby suspected ships that may be transporting sanctioned crude are directly interdicted as opposed to being followed far away. This trend was strengthened by President Trump who stated that the United States will keep up with the illegal trafficking of authorized oil financing narco-terrorism and corruption. This slow pace is an intentional step up, past symbolic tasks to a pressure campaign to interfere with maritime trade in Venezuela.
2. The Bella 1 High-Risk Boarding Plans
The tanker Bella 1 has become a target of the U.S. planners because of its purported false flags and dodges in covering the Venezuelan crude shipments. The officials state that preparations are being made to a probable forcible boarding off Venezuelan waters, and special teams and air support are considered. Trump has taken the step of ordering an enormous military build-up in the Caribbean, but has not gone as far as to order a full scale seizure, as it represents the fine line between making a statement of determination and provoking a situation that could escalate into an actual war.
3. Coast Guard Chases and Naval Escorts of Venezuela
Sea operations have given rise to intense exchanges like years of shadowing of tankers which do not yield to U.S. directives. The docking of the Evana at El Palito port gave an example of how speedy these pursuits can be in regard to the Venezuelan infrastructure. Escort of outbound petroleum carriers by Venezuelan navy escorts has started, and warships now lie between the U.S. patrol and trade. An elderly UN briefing has cautioned that this type of escort together with U.S. interdictions has increased the chance of making wrong calculations and stressed the severity of the necessity of diplomatic involvement.
4. Legal Systems and Conflicting Rivalries
The implementation of Washington depends on the sanctions of the Treasury Department to blacklist ships, companies, and individuals, which prevents transactions in dollars and can impose sanctions in case of breaking the sanctions. Caracas has responded by the initiation of laws against the hijacking of oil tankers which carry its crude oil depicting such an act as piracy. The new law also provides prison sentences of up to 20 years on those that promote or engage in what it deems as piracy or blockades and adds economic safeguards to those who trade with Venezuela.
5. The Seizure of Centuries and Skipper
The two recent interdictions reflect the scope of the U.S. operations. The Panama-flagged Centuries with 1.8 million barrels of Merey crude under a false name was intercepted east of Barbados, even though it was not listed on the sanctions list- an upgrading of the enforcement. The VLCC Skipper, which was approved in 2022 due to its association with the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah of Iran, was captured earlier in the month of December. Both of these have been condemned by Venezuela as international piracy and have received disapproval of China and Russia.
6. Military Quarantine and Build-Up
The current posture has been termed by the White House as a maritime quarantine, and about 15,000 people, carrier strike forces, F-35s, and Coast Guard cutters are deployed in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. These forces work within the sanctions enforcement authorities, intercepting tankers by applying layered surveillance and deterrence. The campaign coincides with Trump pushing more shipbuilding, which may incorporate the enforcement of sanctions with a long-term perspective of projecting the sea power of the U.S across hemispheres.
7. The Ongoing Oil Shipments of China
Chinese flagged VLCC practices like Thousand Sunny and Xing Ye are continuing their voyages in relations to Venezuela despite the blockade. Thousand Sunny has circumvented the Cape of Good Hope on her way to Venezuela with no distractions, and Xing Ye is waiting off French Guiana to take on crude. China, the biggest crude importer of Venezuela has openly protested against U.S. seizures, its ambassador at the UN urging the United States to stop operations that are worsening tensions in the region. These movements put to the test limits of enforcement of the declared blockade.
8. Venezuela Economic Effect on the oil production
The Orinoco Belt storage is full and the exports are pressed leading to Petroleos de Venezuela SA starting to close oil wells. The output should decrease to a minimum of 25 and 500 thousand barrels per day. Although U.S. firm Chevron maintains exports under a special license, blockade significantly cut down on total exports, dozens of shadow fleet tankers making circles in Venezuela. Analysts caution that a long term embargo will ultimately increase the price of oil in the world market.
9. UN Confrontations and Geopolitical Reactions
During a crisis UN Security Council meeting, the Venezuelan ambassador Samuel Moncada made the accusation of pillaging, looting and recolonisation by the U.S., terming the confiscations as the biggest extortion in the country. American ambassador, Mike Waltz responded by arguing that approved oil tankers are the major economic lifeline to Maduro regime and finance narco-terrorism. China and Russia have called for the support of Venezuela and other regional actors such as Panama and Argentina have been in support of the enforcement actions of Washington.
The U.S. war against Venezuelan oil tankers is not a sequence of single maritime events anymore it is a multi-layered operation that has a military, economic, and diplomatic level. With high-risk boardings in sight, Chinese tankers are testing the blockade, and Caracas is stiffening its legal protections, the standoff is developing into a long-term conflict of energy flows and control of the region. It will remain to be determined whether it will lead to some negotiated de-escalation or further confrontation, based on how far each side will be ready to take with its claims in the sea.
