Irans rial has collapsed to 1.42 million per U.S. dollar, as if to put into perspective the severity of the Iranian governments double crisis: a country in economic meltdown, coupled with a military program on the brink of exceeding threatening levels in its development. Amid the rising protests taking place in Tehrans business centers, there are warnings emanating from. western intelligence services about a crisis brewing within the Iranian missile program, changing the strategic balance of power in the Middle East.
It was further reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was ramping up its efforts on chem bio warheads for its long-range ballistic missiles, in addition to relocating its missile launchers to make itself less vulnerable to attacks. All of this is occurring while Iran is facing serious domestic unrest, and alarms have been triggered in Tel Aviv and Washington, and elsewhere around the world. This listicle will explore the following nine important aspects of what is transpiring in Iran.
1. Alleged Violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention
Iran has been declared by the Unites States to be in non-compliance with the CWC because of alleged undeclared transfers of sulfur mustard weapons to Libya during the 1978-1987 war between Libya and Chad, the submission of incomplete declarations relating to riot control agents, and the failure to declare production facilities for chemical weapons. This is because Libya detected 517 artillery shells and eight aerial bombs containing 1.3 metric tons of sulfur mustard weapons that were of Iranian-manufacture in Libyas territory. This counters Irans assertions that it is using missiles for defensive purposes only.
2. Development of Pharmaceutical-Based Agents and Toxins
There are also researches from the Iranian military-connected universities on the development of pharmaceutical based agents (PBAs) with sedation/incapacitatin properties such as medetomidine and fentanyl analogues. The US compliance report states that the development of these agents including the production of botulinum toxin may have an offensive chemical and biological use. The OPCW also states that aerosolized CNS-acting chemicals are prohibited for law enforcement purposes but the states of Iran were opposed.
3. The IRGC Call for Chemical Biological Warheads
According to military sources quoted in an Iran International report, IRGC Aerospace Force is modifying its ballistic missiles to equip them with non-conventional warheads. The sources also say that missile launchers have been redeployed to eastern Iran with command and control systems upgraded. According to these sources, the warhead projects are considered to be a complementary deterrent factor, in either an Israel or US existential conflict.
4. Expansion and Repositioning of Missile Infrastructure
Recent intelligence suggests that missile developments include an extended range of missiles being moved out of range of susceptible zones in the west. The relocations are aimed at making targeting more difficult for adversaries, according to an official. An important lesson was drawn from the June war, including attacks by Israelis and Americans that damaged principal production facilities, including Irans official air defense installations. The IRGC is dispersing operations based on that experience.
5. Foreign Aid to Missile Programs of Iran
Iran has enjoyed long-range missile development due to foreign assistance that has lasted for decades. North Korea donatedScud missiles and production lines, along with Chinese contributions of guidance and anti-ship cruise missiles. Russian firms have been credited with assistance in the development of the Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles, ranging from specialty materials to wind tunnel development assistance, as well as training, although integration activities for Iran have remained an issue.
6. Deterrence Shifts After the June 2025 War
In the June conflict, Israel & the U.S. hit Iranian nuclear sites, prompting Irans massive missile & drone assault. However, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir indicated Iran has the ability to manufacture thousands of missiles per annum. Observers have noted the strain Israels missile protection shield underwent, from declarations of a conclusive win to exercising care regarding a long fight.
7. Collapse of Currency and Merchant Protests
This devaluation, dropping to 1.42 million rials per dollar, has led to strikes in the Gold Bazaar, Saadi Street, and Shush neighborhood, all located inside Tehran. The rate of inflation has risen to 42.2% annually, standing at a staggering 72% when it comes to the cost of food.
8. Hyperinflation Fears and Fiscal Strain
Warnings of impending hyperinflation are being made by critics due to the prevailing inflation rates. An upcoming raise of 62% in taxation rates has also contributed to the increasing unrest among the masses. President Masoud Pezeshkians budget plan has provided an 20% raise to the employees despite the inflation rate being 50%. The breakdown of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal has also frozen assets and stopped arms sales.
9.International Repercussions and Sanctions Risk
“If Iran’s development of the unconventional warhead is proven to be the case, it could lead to further sanctions and international rejection. ” Irans military leaders have been accused of breaching international norms by Western countries. The latest move might ensure that there are no more ways left for Iran and the West to find a way back to negotiations. The Iranian governments military buildup and economic disintegration make it a dangerous combination to have in the Iranian region of the Middle East.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corpss aim to produce chemical and biological missiles is a serious problem in the Iranian governments functionality and is coupled with economic disaster. These nine signs, in the context of the Iranian government, have important implications for military researchers and policymakers in the following way.
