9 Hard Truths About the F-22 Raptor’s Combat Future

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“The F-22 Raptor’s mission-capable rate has dropped to a mere 40.19% in FY 2024.” This figure is telling, to say the least, in the context of an airplane universally regarded for many years as the epitome of air supremacy. It has been two decades since the F-22 made its initial entrance into the world scene but still maintains a level of stealth, speed, and maneuverability unmatched by any aerial foe. Notwithstanding this, the operational pedigree of the F-22 was remarkably thin compared to the F-35 in merely half the time.

“The Air Force’s reluctance to commit the F-22 to combat operations is due to the cost, the limited number of planes, and the ready rate,” explains the website historynet.com. “The Air Force produced only 187 of the planes, and the production lines are all closed. Today, the problem for the Air Force is to maintain a niche combat fleet while preparing for possible conflicts with China and Russia.”

This article will review the nine most important facts and circumstances surrounding the Raptor and the role that America’s most advanced fighter jet plays in the present and the future.

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1. A Lone Kill in Nearly 20 Years

Although the F-22 has been in service since 2005, it has yet to secure any air-to-air victories until the event on February 4, 2023, in which a Raptor with the 1st Fighter Wing out of Joint Base Langley-Eustis engaged an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile with a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon that was hovering at heights between 60,000 and 65,000 feet. Although this event highlights the capabilities of the jet, in terms of its actual combat achievements, the F-35 has more experience with several strike and escort sorties.

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2. The Gates Decision That Still Hurts

Consequently, when then Defense Secretary Bob Gates cut the production of F-22 fighter jets to 187 units in 2009, as opposed to the original plan of 381 units, economy of scale became impossible. This resulted in a sharp increase in the cost of sustainment as well as the availability of spare parts. Consequently, the per-unit cost of this program rose to $334 million, making the Raptor the costliest fighter jet in the world.

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3. Sky-High Operating Costs

According to the Government Accountability Office, the F-22 has a per-flight-hour cost of $85,325, which is significantly higher than fourth-generation fighter jets F-15s and F-16s. With its readiness level of less than 41%, questions have been raised about the cost-effectiveness of such a less battle-tested aircraft. Its deployment could be better addressed by spending on upgrades of the larger fleets.

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4. Readiness in Decline

Mission capable rates for Raptor forces decreased from 57.4% in 2022 to 40.19% in 2024, which is the lowest in two decades. Ageing aircraft, intricately complex stealth maintenance requirements, along with supply chain constraints, have contributed to reduced availability. Restrictions by Congress against divesting 32 ageing forces, which have less capabilities, until 2028 means enduring such readiness challenges for years to come.

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5. Viability Upgrades as a Lifeline

The Air Force has unveiled a ‘Viability’ price tag of $90.34 million in Fiscal Year 2026, in a bid to make the Raptor a viable opponent within a rapidly shifting threat environment. The ‘Viability’ upgrade plan entails incorporating a whole host of enhancements in a modular form, including a sensor system referred to as Infrared Defensive System (IRDS), low-drag stealth ‘drop’ fuel tanks, Helmet-Mounted Displays, and enhanced Electronic Warfare systems.

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6. Engine Sustainment and Performance Improvements

Pratt & Whitney’s contract worth $1.5 billion over three years will continue and improve the F119 engines. Based on real-time flight data through its Usage Based Lifting program, the firm intends to extend the engine’s life and ensure the Raptor can still supercruise at Mach 2 without the use of afterburners.

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7. Strategic Preservation for Peer Wars

Proponents of the limited use of the F-22 argue that the aircraft is held in reserve for high-level engagements against peer nations. Likely adversaries include Russia’s Su-57 ‘Felon’ and China’s J-20 and J-35 aircraft. In these roles, the stealth capability, maneuverability through thrust vectoring, and sensor integration capability of the ‘Raptor’ could be unbeatable.

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8. Pilot Shortages Add to the Problem

Currently, the Air Force is under-staffed by about 1,850 pilots who quit for airline employment. Less cockpit time equates to fewer missions, providing fewer avenues for training. Without experienced pilots for instruction, new pilots cannot be certified for operational levels necessary for high-intensity warfare, making the need for aircraft such as F-22s all the more difficult.

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9. The NGAD Transition Dilemma

The showcase piece within the Next Generation Air Dominance program, the F-47 built by Boeing, is not yet functional in terms of being operational. Therefore, until such time as the F-47 sees operational use, the F-22 has to fill this gap. A challenge that arises in terms of resource allocation to the Raptors in order to accelerate the manufacture of the Next Generation Air Dominance planes is the trade-off that arises in terms of allocating too much funding to Raptors development when at the end of the day this might hold.

The F-22 Raptor may always be a marvel of technology, but its fate now hangs in the balance on a knife edge between preservation and updating. With its limited strength, expense, and rate of readiness, every mission matters. “The Air Force’s viability upgrades and engine sustainment modifications will keep it limping along for a while longer, but its true worth will be judged not by its data plate, but by its ability to get a flight in when United States air superiority is on the line,” it said further.

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