“‘The US will provide Ukraine with intelligence on long-range energy infrastructure targets in Russia,’ several sources from various news outlets say late in December.” This represents a new generation in foreign policy in regards to the conflict, which hitherto had been focused on ‘battle management and defense.’ Yet again, the Trump administration has placed forth a new foreign policy in regards to the conflict that had hitherto seemed utterly implausible in deciding to strike targets “deep inside Russia.”
Nevertheless, at the present point in time, this changeover in the foreign policy of the United States has been inked and sealed in the aftermath of an escalation of the rhetoric from President Trump targeted at the Russian government, and in the aftermath of an escalating belief on the part of the United States government regarding the capability of the government of Ukraine to restore and repossess the disputed territories. There has been an escalation of intelligence sharing, cooperation from the other members of NATO has been sought, and even the possible application of Tomahawk missiles has also been contemplated. The following are ten important points.
1. Improved US Intelligence Assistance
The operation approved by the administration of President Donald Trump includes the sharing of intelligence in regard to Russian energy facilities such as refineries, pipelines, and export points in an agreement aimed at supporting the Ukraine government. It is important to note that the US has, through the intelligence to be shared, the capability to enable the Ukraine government to strike distant facilities. Countries even in NATO are being asked to provide the intelligence. Intelligence to be shared includes satellite photos among others.
2. Russia’s Energy Lifeline Aiming
Funding the war on the other hand, for the Russians, is their energy exports, and therefore energy exports are their central target in Ukraine’s expanded strike campaign. Since August, Ukrainian strikes have targeted a minimum of 77 energy installations in Russia, including 21 out of 38 refineries, causing fuel shortages, due to which Russia was forced to suspend gas exports. While targeting crucial hubs within their refining systems, the strategy here is to ensure the said systems are no longer functional.
3. Tomahawk Missiles under Consider
Among the weapons that Ukraine has formally requested include US Tomahawk Cruise missiles that have the capability of attacking targets up to 1,500 miles. However, the Department of Defense has determined that such a request will not impact their supply, though this is yet to be determined by President Trump. Ukraine’s navy has stretched too thin, although ground missiles appear set to be launched. The weapons that Ukraine has formally requested include US Tomahawk Cruise missiles that have the capability of attacking targets up to 1,500 miles.
4. The European Allies Support the Washington Line
The view in Ukraine on a deep strike has seen countries in Europe fall in line steadily on this notion. “By late summer, not a single voice was heard in allied circles to start Holding Back.” There are some countries in Europe that have built a diverse economy which has no dependence on gas from Russia or oil importation in general. A contract was signed by a Turkish state and a Hungarian republic on an LNG contract. It puts more pressure on the Russian budget to mobilize more funds from the US Administration.
5. Russia’s Warnings and Countermeasures
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has warned that “this provision of the Tomahawk missiles would mean a wave of tensions.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has said, “I will shoot down all of them and improve air protection.” The president also indicated that the “missiles will not make a difference in the situation in this region.” Putin and Russians feel that this is part of the attack by the whole NATO, and thus there will be a response to defend against the attack by their assailants.
6. Offshore & Export Strikes in Ukraine
Kyiv has since incorporated other targeting sites to include offshore oil extraction sites and oil tankers. In fact, the final strike against the Filanovsky site for extracting oil in the Caspian Sea was the first to be directed at such offshore extraction sites. Additionally, other port terminals like Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga have also become targets. Others include other oil pipelines such as the functional Druzhba oil pipeline responsible for supplying oil to different countries in the EU.
7. Sanctions & Economic Pressures
Trump has not relented on his threat regarding intelligence-sharing as a measure against Rosneft and LukOil, which are the two largest oil companies in the Russia business world. The export volume of Urals oil has escalated to wartime levels. There has also been a decline in oil and gas exports by 34% in November compared to November last year. The tariffs on the import article from India are projected to impede the acquisition of Urals oil imports. This is in the face of the finance leaders within G7 confirming that they remain dedicated to countries that accelerate their imports pertinent to the Urals oil.
8. Ukrainian Domestic Energy Resilience
Ukraine has succeeded in preventing huge power outages despite tough attacks by Russia during the 2024-2025 heating period. Coal-fired stationary electric power plants, extensively optimized nuclear power, and a so-called “decentralized” electricity market, including rooftop solar power, have contributed to resolving this issue, at least partially. Around 4-5 GW has been integrated with the power grid due to imports originating in the EU and Japan. This allowed the country to undertake “offensive activities” too, since this power capacity output level is sufficient for public consumption.
9. Gas Infrastructure at Risk
The attack has been aimed at Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure. This impacts Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure, which is currently at 40% in early 2025. Their underground gas storage infrastructure remains safe, but their overground infrastructure experiences risks. The significant Western gas storage in Ukraine over 30 bcm might improve safety in the European Union. However, their European trader decided on “caution, out of security considerations.” Their restoration cost concerning gas infrastructure would amount to 180 million US dollars.
10. Strategic Goal: Forcing Negotiations
The deep strike campaign that can be analyzed alongside the sanctions as a strategy that may ensure that a peace negotiation with Russia follows can be said to be a strategy that may incorporate an attack on the infrastructures as well as the aforementioned sanctions that may just convince the Russians to return to the negotiating table. Of course, the extent to which the said might be within the capacity that Ukraine may perhaps not be capable of undertaking might be significant, with the aid of the allies.
“The Trump administration’s policy that enables deep strikes in Russia signals an escalation policy against power politics to weaken the Kremlin’s war economy. It may be a good sign that a combination of intelligence sharing and the potential availability of long-range missile systems and cooperation on sanctions and the international community may lead to a positive outcome on the power on the economy. The next phase of the conflict may be dependent on the above strategies.”
