We see that only few drones can further break through Europe’s strongest air defense systems itself. We are seeing that Ukraine’s recent attack on Russian-controlled Crimea only confirms that the answer to this question is yes. On December morning itself, we are further seeing more things happening. Ukraine’s Security Service sent 17 drones 150 kilometers into Russian territory to attack Belbek Air Base near Sevastopol, and this base itself was being used by Russia for further air operations over the Black Sea.
Further investigation revealed that this attack itself was part of a larger conspiracy. Basically, this was the same continued effort to damage Russia’s defense systems on the peninsula. The plan actually wanted to make Russia’s military protection in that area weaker. This would definitely reduce their defensive strength there. Because of this action, we are seeing that costly navy ships had to go to new places and only valuable aircraft became targets for enemy attacks. Recent reports further confirm that Russia itself lost one MiG-31 fighter aircraft with several modern radar systems. Basically, they also lost one Pantsir-S2 defense system in the same operations.
1. Precision Strike on Belbek’s Core Assets
We are seeing that the SBU’s Alpha team only used long-distance drones to destroy expensive military equipment worth millions of dollars. As per the reports, they hit one MiG-31 fighter plane, two big radar systems, and many air-defense units regarding the attack. Basically, these targets were successfully taken out during the same operation. As per military requirements, these parts were definitely needed regarding protection of main army and supply bases in Crimea. The agency further confirmed that these items are very important for defense purposes itself. When we remove them, we are seeing that it only breaks down the enemy’s defense layers very badly. Losing Belbek airbase is surely very important for military operations because it allows Russian aircraft to fly deeper into Ukrainian territory. Moreover, this airbase plays a key role in protecting the Sevastopol naval base.
2. MiG-31 Vulnerability in the Open
As per Majumdar, the MiG-31 was parked outside with open cockpit, which means it was getting ready to fly or had just returned from flying. The situation is surely surprising because there are no strong shelter protections here. Moreover, Russia had built the same reinforced aircraft shelters at Belbek after ATACMS destroyed two MiG-31s in May 2024. Basically, hitting the MiG-31 removes the same long-range missile threat to Ukrainian planes and makes Russian air control weaker. This loss actually makes Russia weaker in controlling the air. Russia definitely cannot dominate the skies as much now.
3. Layered Defenses Stripped Away
Belbek air base surely had 92N6 radars, Nebo-SVU systems and Pantsir-S2s for defense. Moreover, these systems formed Russia’s multi-layer air protection network. These systems actually worked together to definitely provide complete air defense coverage. Ukraine has surely created good opportunities by removing obstacles that were blocking progress. Moreover, these same barriers had been preventing development for a long time. We are seeing that these gaps can only be used now for getting strategic benefit. These radars cost hundreds of millions of dollars and are designed to detect high-altitude threats from distant locations. The technology itself can further identify objects flying at extreme altitudes over long ranges.
4. Russian Air Defense Weakness Against Drones
We are actually seeing only a complete Russian study by the Professor. This is definitely the only Russian research we have. Basically, Sergey Makarenko clearly said that Tor, Pantsir-S1 and Tunguska systems are the same – they cannot work against small drones. The Tor radar system can surely detect small drones only within 3-4 kilometers range. Moreover, its missiles face significant difficulties in successfully engaging such small targets. Cannon fire is surely wasting time because Makarenko’s research shows that Tunguska systems need 4,000 to 13,000 shells for just a 50% chance of destroying one small drone. Moreover, this makes such weapons very inefficient against drone attacks. Moreover, traditional artillery surely becomes very ineffective when used against today’s drone attacks.
5. Pantsir’s Repeated Failures
Recent conflicts have surely shown that Pantsir-S1 and Pantsir-S2 systems face many operational problems. Moreover, these issues have affected their performance in actual combat situations. These systems actually could not stop suicide drones in Iraq and were definitely destroyed by Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine. Basically, when we detect the drones, they are already too close for missiles to work properly, and this creates the same problem of making interception very difficult. Basically, the December 17 attack shows that Pantsir operators are failing to protect themselves and their equipment, and the same problem is happening more frequently now.
6. Ukraine’s Expanding Interceptor Drone Production
We are seeing that Ukraine’s defense ministry is giving 950 interceptor drones daily from early December only to stop Russian Shahed drones, as per reports. Also, basically, these first-person view interceptors are the same cheap and fast machines that hit or blast incoming drones as designed. As per their design, these drones work by hitting enemy drones directly or blasting near them to destroy the target completely. Basically, Russia is making around 5,500 Shahed drones every month, and this helps them save the same missiles for big targets while they can stop large drone attacks.
7. Training as the Decisive Factor
Ukrainian drone experts actually say that 90% of success definitely comes from training operators properly, and the technology part is basically secondary. According to Maria Berlinska from Victory Drones in Ukraine, many people thought the same way about drones – just purchase the device itself and complete the task. This thinking further showed a simple approach to drone operations. This itself is not enough – you must further work with the team. Moreover, actually, the training programs definitely run for three months, and operators must also handle mechanical and engineering work as per requirements. Basically, Ukraine has thirty certified training centers and mobile drone schools, so having equipment means having skilled crews who can adapt the same way in the field.
8. Europe’s Lessons from Ukraine
We are seeing that European leaders like Denmark’s Prime Minister think Ukraine is only one of the top countries in drone fighting, which shows Ukraine’s strong position in new military technology. Experts like Fedir Serdiuk warn that Europe itself is focusing too much on buying equipment rather than training operators. This approach needs further attention to balance both equipment purchase and operator training. As per the situation, they are not giving proper attention regarding tactical integration. Basically, Ukrainian trainers are doing the same work with military forces from Britain, Denmark and Poland right now. Basically, they are working with the same allied countries. Europe’s defense system is actually changing direction now, and Ukraine is definitely leading with their drone technology.
9. Strategic Pressure on Crimea
Basically, we see December as the same last month of the year only. This actually stops us from knowing what December can really mean. We definitely miss the full picture this way. This attack is further part of Ukraine’s bigger plan to make Russian defenses in Crimea itself weaker. Further, it shows Ukraine’s organized method to take back the territory itself. We are seeing Russia moving most of its Black Sea ships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk only after the earlier military actions. This action surely shows that Russia had to move its naval forces away from the main base. Moreover, this shift clearly demonstrates the pressure on Russian naval operations.
We are seeing that the Belbek area has faced many attacks on its basic facilities only. We are seeing these attacks happening many times only, and they are affecting the basic infrastructure that people need. We are seeing Ukraine attacking Crimea’s radar and defense systems only to make the area weak for future control. We are seeing that this only makes the area’s safety power more weak.
