In the estimation of Adriano Bosoni from RANE, “For most of the war, Russia operated on the assumption that its own territory was safe. That’s no longer the case.” That shift is not rhetorical; it’s being carved into reality by Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign that now reaches targets up to 1,000 kilometres inside Russia.
Since mid-2025, Ukrainian forces have launched an increasing number of attacks against oil refineries, fuel depots, and military logistics nodes deep inside Russian territory. Launched in concert with special operations raids under the cover of night from improvised rural runways, this spate of operations has forced Moscow to reroute supplies and stretch air defences and to impose fuel rationing in affected regions. This list examines the most critical developments in Ukraine’s drone warfare evolution, its strategic objectives, and the subsequent impacts on Russia’s energy sector and military posture, across global markets at large.
1. Doubling Drone Range to 1,000 Kilometres
A year ago, Ukrainian drones had a reach of roughly 500 kilometres. Today, models like the Lyutyi routinely hit targets twice as far away. For Commander “Fidel,” this was a “holy mission,” showing how extended range has opened vast new zones for strikes that include deep industrial heartlands hitherto well beyond the reach of Kyiv’s forces. This leap in capability marks a fundamental change in the war’s geography, enabling Kyiv to bypass heavily defended border zones and strike with greater precision at strategic assets.
2. Covert Rural Launch Activities
Drones are assembled in underground or camouflaged rural workshops, sometimes at night and in near silence. Working under red headlamps, the officers try not to be seen, for engines sputter like old motorcycles; one by one, drones lift from makeshift runways toward Russian targets. These dispersed launch sites are making detection and preemptive strikes far more difficult for Russian forces, adding resilience to Ukraine’s campaign.
3. Strikes on Russia’s Energy Infrastructure
Ukraine has hit 16 big Russian refineries, amounting to about 38% of nominal refining capacity. Most restart within weeks, but the cumulative impact is significant, forcing fuel rationing in many regions and shaving off about 500,000 barrels per day from Russia’s refining capability. President Zelenskyy says those strikes have already cost Russia up to 20% of its supply of gasoline.
4. Economic Shockwaves and Fuel Shortages
In-country wholesale gasoline prices were up 40-50% in 2025, with AI-92 and AI-95 grades in steep growth until a partial correction in November. Strikes by drones have hit at least 30 refineries, cutting oil processing volumes by 10%, while independent petrol stations in Siberia were forced to close. The Kremlin has extended partial bans on petrol exports, underlining the burden on domestic supply.
5. Integration with Western Sanctions
The EU, UK, and the US have tightened sanctions on Russian energy, including giants like Rosneft and Lukoil, and placed limits on the shadow fleet that moves sanctioned oil. According to analysts such as Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt, Ukrainian strikes complement these moves and accelerate pressure on Russian revenue streams. With 75% of Russian oil exports now under US sanctions, the combined effect could reshape global energy flows.
6. Low-Cost, High-Impact Weapons
Long-range Ukrainian drones cost a mere $55,000-tens of times cheaper than the deployed Russian air defense systems against them. This cost asymmetry means that Moscow is forced to expend expensive interceptors against relatively inexpensive threats, and that is a costly expenditure over time. Its simple design allows for the rapid assembly and constant adaptation of Lyutyi in order to evade detection and electronic warfare.
7. Target Set Expansion
In addition to the refineries, Ukrainian drones have struck airfields, taking out about a third of Russia’s strategic bombers in one operation and attacked the Kerch Bridge across Crimea. Sea-based drones equipped with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles take out Russian Su-30 jets over the Black Sea. Other modified drone carriers launch FPV drones inland to strike high-value air defense systems.
8. Tactical and Strategic Logic
Analysts describe Kyiv’s method as one of attrition by logistics-forcing the Russians to reroute supplies, commit air defences across a wider area, and absorb repeated losses in infrastructure. Such tactics deplete Moscow’s ability for continued operations, even though single strikes did not permanently incapacitate the facilities.
9. Impact on Global Energy Markets
Sanctions and strikes have disrupted Russian oil exports, which have shrunk to a low of 2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the invasion. This has lifted refining margins for Western oil majors by 61% in Q3 2025 while prompting buyers in India and China to pause or renegotiate purchases. The EU’s plan to cut off Russian gas imports by 2026 tightens the noose further.
10. Challenges of Adaptation for Russia
Moscow has classified gasoline production data, obscuring the full impact of strikes, but evidence shows at least 10 refineries have suspended operations since August. While crude exports remain high, refined product shortages are evident in long queues at petrol stations and regional rationing. Opposition figures warn current measures “won’t save the domestic market,” highlighting the limited options facing the Kremlin. The drone warfare being conducted by Ukraine has moved from symbolic cross-border raids to sustained deep-strike campaigns that reshape the strategic map.
Melding low-cost engineering and operational secrecy with Western economic pressure, Kyiv has forced Moscow to defend a far broader front than it had to so far, against vulnerabilities it once dismissed. Whether such pressure will compel an eventual change in Russia’s war calculus is less clear, but already the transformation in the geography of conflict is undeniable.
