Poland’s skies blazed with sweeps of radar and the roar of fighter engines at dawn as its army switched to maximum alert. The provocation a sweeping Russian long-range aviation raid on Ukraine, spearheaded by Tu-95MS nuclear-capable bombers and a record number of drones. The response was instant NATO fighters scrambled, air defenses were activated, and radiolocation networks swept every kilometer of airspace along the alliance’s eastern flank.
1. The Tu-95MS: Cold War Legacy, Postmodern Strike Platform
The Tu-95MS, or the NATO-named “Bear,” is a turboprop four-engine strategic bomber capable of delivering conventional and nuclear ordnance. Its range of over 12,000 kilometers and ability to launch Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles from beyond the defenses of the enemy continue to make it a highly potent instrument of Russian power projection. Although developed in the 1950s, the aircraft have been consistently updated, enabling them to remain an integral component of Russia’s nuclear triad. The use of the aircraft in this strike represents Moscow’s determination to employ its most symbolic strategic weapons in conventional warfare.
2. Resilience After Operation Spiderweb
Earlier this year, Ukraine’s audacious Operation Spiderweb disabled or destroyed at least seven Tu-95MS bombers in deep-penetration drone strikes on Russian airbases. Given that Russia produces only one strategic bomber a year, those losses were catastrophic. However, as the UK defense ministry explained, Russia has managed to maintain “offensive tempo,” launching several packages of long-range sorties since then. The recent attack proves Moscow can mobilize its remaining bombers for high-profile missions even with a reduced fleet.
3. Drone Swarm Warfare
Besides bombers, Russia also deployed some 500 military drones in the attack a quantity appropriate to the nature of modern-day battlefields. A majority of them are one-way attack drones such as Iran’s Shahed series, to overwhelm air defense and consume interceptor inventory. Ukraine’s air forces claimed they destroyed hundreds of drones in the attack but sheer quantity pushed defense systems into a state of constant cycle engagement.
4. NATO’s Integrated Air Defense Response
Poland’s operations commander announced that “duty fighter pairs have been scrambled, and ground air defense systems and radio-location reconnaissance have reached maximum readiness.” NATO’s integrated air defence network links radar, interceptor aircraft, and surface-to-air missile batteries between member states. The framework allows for rapid data exchange, enabling allied fighters from F-35s to Eurofighters to intercept targets before they reach critical infrastructure or population centres.
5. MiG-31 Foxhounds and Baltic Provocations
The attack followed a brazen Russian step over the Baltic three MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors flew into Estonian airspace for 12 minutes, transponders off and no flight plans filed. Equipped with the ability to fly at a speed higher than Mach 2.8 and equipped with long-range R-37M air-to-air missiles, the MiG-31 is designed to intercept high-speed threats but here, it was being employed as a tool of intimidation. NATO’s Operation Eastern Sentry sent Italian F-35s, Swedish JAS 39 Gripens, and Finnish fighters to patrol behind the Foxhounds.
6. Critical Infrastructure Under Threat
Hours prior to a Tu-95MS attack, two Russian fighter planes conducted a low flyover over the safety perimeter of Poland’s Petrobaltic oil and gas platform in the Baltic Sea. The platform, operated by Orlen Group, is one of Poland’s most significant nodes of offshore energy production. Such flyovers pose as much of a threat to physical destruction of critical energy infrastructure as they do to political escalation.
7. The Scale of NATO Air Policing
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, NATO air surveillance has escalated massively. While Allied Air Command registered over 400 scrambles in 2024, the peak in 2022 was 570 intercepts. Most of them are Russian aircraft coming in without identification or communication, which is predominantly over the Baltic Sea. With the higher density of NATO fighter aircraft on the eastern front, any intrusion even for seconds is met with a prompt response.
8. Strategic Implications of Air Defense
Integrated use of strategic bombers and drone swarms probes existing air defense maxims. Defensive assets now need to deter high-flying, long-range missile threats and low-cost, low-altitude drones in the same operational space. This dual-threat environment forces the defenders to balance the deployment of costly interceptors against drone swarms that need only to be defeated by layered, multi-platform defense.
9. The Evolving Role of Strategic Aviation
Originally a pure nuclear delivery platform, Russian strategic aviation is today a conventional strike capability. This change reduces the risk of nuclear escalation from bombing bomber bases, as seen in Ukraine’s deep strikes. But it also makes these planes legitimate and routine targets, further blurring the lines between nuclear deterrence systems and conventional warfighting systems.
The night’s activity from the roar of Tu-95MS jet engines to the omnipresent whine of drones highlighted a reality NATO has been getting used to since 2022 the front line in the east is an operating environment in real-time, in which strategic bombers, stealth fighters, and hive-like unmanned aircraft are all present in one battlefield.
