Early in 2016, one of the number and class of North Korean subs lost contact and disappeared off their coast. North Korea, with extensive efforts, and US surveillance, were unable to recover the ship. Speculation is that the sub has sunk, possibly as an out-of-date ship.
1. A Quiet Vanishing at Sea
The missing submarine was said to be operational off the coast of North Korea at the time of loss of contact. A U.S. official, speaking anonymously, stated, “About a week ago it disappeared and the speculation is that it sank,” and added, “The North Koreans have made no effort to signal there is something amiss or that they need assistance or some form of aid.”
The U.S. military and its South Korean allies watched closely as the North Korean navy searched the sea for the lost sub, assuming that it would have suffered a catastrophic failure in training exercises.
2. North Korea’s Large but Deteriorating Fleet
North Korea’s fleet of an estimated 70 submarines is a combination of midget subs and larger boats with crews up to 30 or 40, the majority consisting of ageing diesel models with little more than coastal defence capabilities and limited offence. Joe Bermudez, a North Korea analyst, said that although the ships are of “reasonable quality,” they tend to convert civilian equipment for use by the military and lack low levels of maintenance compared to other navies in East Asia.
3. Asymmetric Threats and Historical Precedent
The Kim Jong Un regime has focused particularly on its underwater capabilities as a threat to South Korea. In an ominous precedent, the 2010 sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan and the death of 46 sailors were blamed on a torpedo from a North Korean midget submarine, underlining the asymmetric danger posed by Pyongyang’s older but potentially deadly submarine force.
4. Modernisation Efforts Amidst Limitations
Most recently, North Korea has introduced a new submarine, the Hero Kim Kun Ok, said to equip nuclear-tipped missiles. This expansion of North Korea’s naval military capabilities, as shown by the Sept. 2023 introduction of the “tactical nuclear submarine No. 841,” signifies continued devotion to developing their offensive weapons capabilities even amid global sanctions and economic struggles.
5. International Monitoring and Strategic Implications
Events such as the loss of a submarine present profound intelligence issues for the United States and its partners. Even a loss of an old diesel sub might reveal something vulnerable or clandestine within North Korea’s naval program. In the case of U.S. and South Korean military, continuous surveillance allows them to know if Pyongyang is trying to hide a test of new technology or if it is indeed an accident.
6. Rising Tensions and Military Exercises
As these developments unfolded, the United States and South Korea have continued to enhance their own defensive efforts, with combined military exercises termed as the largest to date. The latest KCNA warning of a “pre-emptive retaliatory strike at the enemy groups” engaged in these drills illustrates North Korea’s ever-confrontational position.
7. Escalatory Rhetoric and Regional Risks
Pyongyang said it would respond to the drills with an “operation to liberate the entire South Korea including Seoul” with an “ultra-precision blitzkrieg.” South Korea’s defense ministry, reacting to this, called on Pyongyang to stop issuing threats or committing further provocation, said Yonhap news agency.
Such language highlights the delicacy of the security balance of the peninsula where the disappearance of a single submarine can ignite tensions and attract international attention.
