It was a figure intended to shock even veteran defense strategists: 2,500 new missiles in one year. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia’s 2025 production plan is more of a game plan for protracted high-level warfare against Ukraine today, and maybe NATO by the end of the decade. The scale, reach, and technical maturity of the program suggest a defense industry operating at near-war tempo, with a 10-year arms game plan already on the drawing board for 2026-2037.
1. Hypersonic Missiles Take Center Stage
Hypersonic weapons, including the Kinzhal and the new Oreshnik, are one of the most strategically significant elements of the buildup. The Kinzhal, fired from MiG-31K or Tu-22M3 planes, accelerates to Mach 10 through rocket power and is modeled after the Iskander ballistic missile. With its speed and agility, it reaches evasive maneuvers that are hard to intercept, though some have been shot down by Ukrainian forces on the U.S.-supplied Patriot systems. These triumphs, nonetheless, come with the cost of firing all 32 interceptor missiles from a battery an organizational hassle most NATO troops are not able to afford.
The Oreshnik, first deployed in November 2024, is an intermediate-range ballistic missile variant of the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM. With Mach 10–11 capability and up to six warheads as payload, each carrying six high-energy submunitions, it can destroy hardened targets such as underground bunkers. It can reach Brussels in 17 minutes, according to Russian state media. President Vladimir Putin has called it “immune to any missile defense system,” and its deployment is the first combat deployment of its kind in history.
2. Diversifying the Missile Portfolio
Apart from hypersonics, Russian missile manufacturing also includes Iskander ballistic and cruise variants, anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, and subsonic cruise missiles with ranges of up to 2,500 kilometers. Vadym Skibitskyi quotes that Moscow’s ambitions are the longer range, greater precision, and more powerful warheads in their designs. This follows a doctrinal inclination toward deep-strike capability against NATO targets.
3. Modernization of Fighter Jets
Among the 57 new aircraft to be supplied in 2025 are Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighters, Su-35S supermaneuverable multirole fighters, Su-34 fighter-bombers, and Su-30SM multirole fighters. The Su-57 features internal weapons bays, radar-absorbing materials, and the N036 Byelka AESA radar with stealth target detection capability. The Su-35S, with its thrust-vectoring engines and Irbis-E radar, offers superb dogfight maneuverability and long-range capability. The Su-34’s side-by-side cockpit and armored nose position it well for strike missions, and the Su-30SM offers versatility in air superiority and ground attack missions.
4. Consolidation of Armored Forces
Russia will produce close to 250 brand-new T-90M tanks this year, in addition to the ongoing development of the T-14 Armata platform. The T-90M features the Relikt explosive reactive armor, improved 125mm 2A46M-5 smoothbore gun, and sophisticated fire-control systems. The Armata, while produced in limited numbers, introduces an unmanned turret and a crew capsule equipped independently from the main structure, a generation leap forward in survivability. Russia’s new tank army will be founded on the T-90, Armata, and T-80 series, says Skibitskyi.
5. Artillery and Fire Support Systems
The 365 new weapons that join the arsenal are headed by the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV self-propelled howitzer with a 16 per minute fire rate and over 70 kilometers in range using precision-guided ammunition. Other systems, including the Malva wheeled gun, Giatsint, and Magnoliya are copied from the experience of Ukraine, where speed of redeployment and mobility have become paramount to survival.
6. Drone Production on Industrial Scale
Russia’s Tatarstan-based Alabuga factory has adopted 90% of Iran’s Shahed-136 production process, which is known as the Geran locally. Output has been increased to over 5,500 pieces a month, with the price reduced from $200,000 per drone in 2022 to $70,000 in 2025. Improvements include upgraded communications, extended battery life, and increased warheads. The loitering munitions are now a staple of Russia’s combined-arms strikes, often used to saturate air defenses ahead of missile salvoes.
7. Strategic Industrial Planning
The 10-year weapons plan for 2026–2037 focuses on heavy armor, warships, advanced aviation, and long-range strike systems. Long-horizon planning replicates Cold War-era Soviet procurement cycles, with consideration given to keeping pace with or surging ahead of NATO’s modernization schedules. The incorporation of hypersonic systems, mass-produced unmanned aerial vehicles, and advanced armor implies a force structure both for attritional war and for rapid escalation.
8. NATO Implications
The combination of hypersonic strike, enhanced fighter squadrons, and mass missile manufacturing creates an intimidating issue for NATO strategists. Platforms like the Oreshnik blur the line between conventional and nuclear deterrence because their payload type may not be known until detonation. Mass production is most significantly present in drones and artillery and indicates Russia’s intent to sustain high operational tempos well beyond the Ukrainian battlefield.
By marrying advanced engineering with mass production, Russia is giving the signal that its military-industrial base is not just recovering from sanctions but reshaping to suit extended confrontation with the West. For NATO, the countdown to 2030 has already started.
